Forecast Business Outcomes with Monte Carlo Analysis

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About This Course

How to use beginner-level Excel to improve your forecast of what profit your project or business will deliver.

Suppose you are flipping a property.

You buy the worst house in the best street to transform it into the best house and sell at a profit.

How will you work out your profit?

Will you estimate the maximum and minimum for the purchase cost, the improvement cost, and the selling price?

What about all the other costs, and the time the project could take...

... and the time it could take to sell?

How will you process all these variables in your calculation?

You could build a few scenarios to ask "what if" questions, like "what if the bottom drops out of the market mid project?"

But how will you choose them, and how many scenarios will you build?

What if you could plug everything you know into a model and get a computer to build you thousands of scenarios that test every combination of parameters?

What if the computer could tell you the minimum and maximum profit you can achieve?

What if the computer could tell you where 80% of the profit outcomes lie?

What if the computer could tell you how confident you can be in any profit outcome you choose?

Would that take a load of worry off your business planning?

Would that help you plan tighter projects?

Or improve your return on investment across a portfolio of projects?

This is what this course delivers.

And it uses standard functions in Excel so you don't have to buy add-ins, or write macros, or learn special coding.

What is more, we'll give you the Excel to get you started.

We'll use a property flip as our example, and go behind the scenes to explain the mathematics - but you don't have to learn this or pass an exam.

We'll show you how to do this in Excel and give you a working spreadsheet.

And we'll show you how to use the Excel to build your own models.

Then we'll show you how we use this technique to work out our strategy for buying businesses.

  • You will be able to forecast the financial outcomes from your business from everything you know about costs and likely sales.

  • You will be able to extend the Excel provided to your own businesses without needing any Excel add-ins.

Course Curriculum

1 Lectures

1 Lectures

1 Lectures

1 Lectures

1 Lectures

1 Lectures

1 Lectures

1 Lectures

Instructor

Profile photo of Nicholas Whittall
Nicholas Whittall

Dr Nicholas Whittall founded a strategy consulting company in 2009 and a property development company in 2016. He is currently developing his on-line education business.His strategy courses draw on his experience as a consultant.His property courses draw on the experience he and his wife have gained by flipping properties from 2013 then keeping properties for vacation rental.He has also distilled...

Review
4.9 course rating
4K ratings
ui-avatar of Pinto Arsénio Quizanga PAQ
Pinto A. Q. P.
5.0
1 year ago

Deep study very good

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ui-avatar of Esperanza Manuel-Padilla
Esperanza M.
4.0
2 years ago

Able to simplify what are commonly complex formulas

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ui-avatar of Pedro Gonzalez Cerrud
Pedro G. C.
4.5
2 years ago

Good

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ui-avatar of Rob Nyberg
Rob N.
5.0
2 years ago

His Introduction is clear, concise and cogent.

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ui-avatar of Keith Busmente
Keith B.
4.5
3 years ago

I've performed Monte Carlo analysis in a former life, but that was over 20 years ago. I took this course as a refresher and it jarred things in my memory I forgot were there. Plan on taking the next course as well.

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ui-avatar of Paul Ofoche
Paul O.
5.0
3 years ago

Great course! One of the best that I have taken on Udemy. I intend to start applying it immediately at my workplace for introducing risk considerations into project scheduling.

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ui-avatar of Corinna L.
Corinna L.
5.0
3 years ago

Fantastic course! Clear, concise and learnings are immediately applicable in a hundred ways (even beside business considerations). It even has a ready made spreadsheet that you can build upon.

If you're an entrepeneur or just want to impress your boss, give this a try, it's just 2-3 hours!

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ui-avatar of Luis Lopez-Salgar
Luis L.
5.0
4 years ago

Excelente

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ui-avatar of Courtlin Holt-Nguyen
Courtlin H.
5.0
4 years ago

Short and concise course on implementing Monte Carlo within Excel using data tables (no need for additional plug-ins or paid add-ons). Rather than extending the courses by a few hours and going through the creation of the template step-by-step, the author provided the template and demonstrated it's usage. Overall, good introduction to the subject and a useful template. Looking forward to additional courses. Thanks!

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ui-avatar of Spencer Star
Spencer S.
4.0
4 years ago

Yes, so far.

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